Current and future temperature suitability for autochthonous transmission of malaria in Canada.

IF 3 2区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

International Journal of Health Geographics Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI:10.1186/s12942-025-00407-9

Kevin Siebels, Victoria Ng, Nicholas Ogden, Steven Schofield, Antoinette Ludwig

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Malaria continues to be one of the most significant infectious diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality. In many parts of North America, including parts of southern Canada, competent malaria vectors Anopheles quadrimaculatus and Anopheles freeborni are present. With climate change, Canada may be increasingly suitable for transmission of the malaria parasite Plasmodium spp. The objective of this study was to identify the geographic locations in Canada where, and the frequency with which, temperature conditions may be suitable for autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum under current and projected climate.

Methods: Temperature and duration thresholds from historic Plasmodium spp. transmission studies were applied on gridded historical and projected data to compute yearly frequencies of suitable conditions in Canada.

Results: The resulting yearly frequencies from 2000 to 2023 show rising trends for both Plasmodium species, with surges reaching 34% of the Canadian population temporarily living under suitable temperature conditions for Plasmodium falciparum, and 56% for Plasmodium vivax. Projected populations percentages vary significantly with the Plasmodium species, climate change scenario, and climate model considered.

Conclusion: Our results underscore the increasing risk of autochthonous transmission of malaria in Canada due to climate change.

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加拿大疟疾本地传播的当前和未来温度适宜性。

背景：就发病率和死亡率而言，疟疾仍然是最重要的传染病之一。在北美许多地区，包括加拿大南部部分地区，存在有能力的疟疾病媒四方按蚊和自由按蚊。随着气候变化，加拿大可能越来越适合疟原虫的传播。本研究的目的是确定在当前和预测的气候下，加拿大的地理位置、频率和温度条件可能适合间日疟原虫和恶性疟原虫的本地传播。方法：将历史上疟原虫传播研究的温度和持续时间阈值应用于网格化的历史和预测数据，以计算加拿大适宜条件的年频率。结果：从2000年到2023年，两种疟原虫的年频率都呈上升趋势，在适宜温度条件下暂时生活的加拿大人口中，34%的人感染恶性疟原虫，56%的人感染间日疟原虫。预计的种群百分比随着疟原虫种类、气候变化情景和气候模型的考虑而显著变化。结论：我们的研究结果强调，由于气候变化，加拿大疟疾本地传播的风险增加。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Health Geographics PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH -

CiteScore

10.20

自引率

2.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： A leader among the field, International Journal of Health Geographics is an interdisciplinary, open access journal publishing internationally significant studies of geospatial information systems and science applications in health and healthcare. With an exceptional author satisfaction rate and a quick time to first decision, the journal caters to readers across an array of healthcare disciplines globally. International Journal of Health Geographics welcomes novel studies in the health and healthcare context spanning from spatial data infrastructure and Web geospatial interoperability research, to research into real-time Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-enabled surveillance services, remote sensing applications, spatial epidemiology, spatio-temporal statistics, internet GIS and cyberspace mapping, participatory GIS and citizen sensing, geospatial big data, healthy smart cities and regions, and geospatial Internet of Things and blockchain.