Evaluating electricity accessibility and consumption patterns in Africa using VIIRS nighttime imagery

Abstract

Ensuring universal access to reliable and sustainable electricity remains a critical challenge for many African nations, particularly in sub-Saharan regions. This study leverages nighttime light data from VIIRS-DNB satellites to estimate electricity consumption and accessibility at subnational levels, addressing the limitations of national-scale datasets. Annual cloud-free VIIRS composites from 2012 to 2022 were combined with population data from LandScan and GHSL to develop regression models, enabling detailed spatial and temporal analyses of electricity usage. NTL intensity correlates strongly with reported electricity final consumption (average R² = 0.88), validating its utility as a proxy for energy metrics. Our findings highlight significant regional disparities based on Gini index. Southern Africa's median rural Gini index fell from 0.38 to 0.10, reflecting their electrification efforts. By contrast, Central Africa's median rural Gini reached 0.44 in 2019, underscoring uneven infrastructure developments and persistent spatial inequalities. West Africa exhibits gradual but consistent improvement, while North Africa shows comparatively equitable energy distribution and near-universal coverage. East Africa's progress, spurred by targeted national programs, illustrates the potential impact of sustained policy interventions. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of integrating Earth Observation data with socio-economic variables for real-time, subnational monitoring of electricity access. The insights gained can inform more equitable strategies for expanding infrastructure, guiding policymakers toward achieving sustainable and reliable energy for all.