Have China's internal migrants been more settled since 2010? A contribution based on migrants' age profiles.

Abstract

This Research Note employs age data to assess whether China's internal migrants have become more settled since 2010. The aim is to answer the crucial question of whether recent hukou reform initiatives have achieved their goals of improving migrant settlement. We extend a method from existing research that examines two key aspects of settlement - family togetherness and long-term stay of migrants - through analyzing age profiles of migrant stock. Specifically, by scrutinizing age data from the 2010 and 2020 censuses, we evaluate whether the child and elderly dependents of migrants are more engaged in migration and whether migrants growing old can better remain in the destinations. The results show that from 2010 to 2020, the age distribution of migrants became slightly more even across all age groups, yet it was still concentrated in young adults - the overall shape remained largely unchanged. This indicates a small improvement in settlement, which is unsatisfactory given the various hukou reform initiatives aimed at substantially increasing settlement opportunities in the last 10 years. Much greater efforts on hukou reform and support for migrants are needed. Furthermore, our research highlights the utility of age data in assessing the actual extent of migrant settlement, as opposed to the exclusive focus on settlement intentions, which are common in existing studies.