Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on carbon storage and its economic value in the Qilian Mountains Region, China

IF 2.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

Journal for Nature Conservation Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI:10.1016/j.jnc.2025.127042

Xin Lei , Yong Zhou , Pan Huo

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Abstract

The Qilian Mountains region, a critical ecological barrier in Northwest China, plays a vital role in terrestrial carbon storage, yet the economic value of this service is often overlooked. This study integrates the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) models to analyze spatiotemporal changes in land use and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and to project these dynamics to 2050 under Business-As-Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Development (RED), and Ecological Protection (EPS) scenarios. Furthermore, discount rates with present and future value formulas were used to reveal the evolving economic value of carbon storage from 2000 to 2050. From 2000 to 2020, total carbon storage increased by 2.0 % to 22.59 × 10⁶ t, and its economic value grew by 67.0 % to 38.87 × 10⁸ yuan, primarily due to the expansion of grassland and water bodies. Future projections reveal highly divergent outcomes. The EPS scenario demonstrates the highest potential, increasing carbon storage by a further 6.1 % and its economic value by 56.4 % by 2050 through large-scale ecological restoration. The BAU scenario projects modest gains in both carbon storage (+0.36 %) and economic value (+47.9 %). In stark contrast, the RED scenario results in a net carbon loss of 1.03 % and yields the lowest economic value growth (+45.9 %) due to the encroachment of construction land on forests. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the time value of carbon when estimating its economic worth. This study highlights the importance of accounting for the time value of carbon when assessing its economic worth, and reveals that an ecological protection strategy in the Qilian Mountains generates superior carbon sequestration and economic returns, which holds significant implications for shaping regional sustainable development policies and land use planning.

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祁连山区多情景土地利用变化对碳储量及其经济价值的影响

祁连山地区是西北重要的生态屏障，在陆地碳储量中发挥着至关重要的作用，但这种服务的经济价值往往被忽视。本研究整合了斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）和生态系统服务与权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型，分析了2000 - 2020年土地利用和碳储量的时空变化，并预测了在“照常经营”（BAU）、“经济快速发展”（RED）和“生态保护”（EPS）情景下到2050年的动态变化。在此基础上，利用贴现率与现值和未来值公式来揭示2000 - 2050年碳储量经济价值的演变。2000 - 2020年，总碳储量增长2.0%至22.59 × 10 26 t，经济价值增长67.0%至38.87 × 108元，主要是由于草地和水体的扩大。对未来的预测显示出截然不同的结果。EPS情景显示出最大的潜力，通过大规模生态恢复，到2050年碳储量将进一步增加6.1%，其经济价值将增加56.4%。BAU情景预测碳储量（+ 0.36%）和经济价值（+ 47.9%）均有小幅增长。与此形成鲜明对比的是，由于建设用地对森林的侵占，RED情景导致净碳损失1.03%，经济价值增长最低（+ 45.9%）。我们的研究结果强调了在估计碳的经济价值时考虑碳的时间价值的重要性。本研究强调了在评估碳经济价值时考虑碳时间价值的重要性，揭示了祁连山生态保护战略具有较好的碳固存和经济效益，这对制定区域可持续发展政策和土地利用规划具有重要意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal for Nature Conservation 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

5.00%

发文量

151

审稿时长

7.9 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal for Nature Conservation addresses concepts, methods and techniques for nature conservation. This international and interdisciplinary journal encourages collaboration between scientists and practitioners, including the integration of biodiversity issues with social and economic concepts. Therefore, conceptual, technical and methodological papers, as well as reviews, research papers, and short communications are welcomed from a wide range of disciplines, including theoretical ecology, landscape ecology, restoration ecology, ecological modelling, and others, provided that there is a clear connection and immediate relevance to nature conservation. Manuscripts without any immediate conservation context, such as inventories, distribution modelling, genetic studies, animal behaviour, plant physiology, will not be considered for this journal; though such data may be useful for conservationists and managers in the future, this is outside of the current scope of the journal.