Development and External Validation of Machine Learning-based Models for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Endometrial Cancer: A Population-based Study.

IF 1.7 4区医学 Q4 ONCOLOGY

Anticancer research Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI:10.21873/anticanres.17715

Munetoshi Akazawa, Kazunori Hashimoto, Hiroaki Nagano

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background/aim: Most endometrial cancers are early-stage cancers with a good prognosis, but the prognosis for recurrent endometrial cancer is poor. Accurate prognostication is essential for the management of patients with cancer. This study aimed to assess the survival outcome of endometrial cancer using machine learning.

Materials and methods: We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, constructing machine learning models to predict the 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The variables included patient demographics, pathological factors, and therapeutic factors.

Results: The OS rates of 71,506 patients and the CSS rates of 66,368 patients were included. For the prediction of OS, the best machine learning model achieved a class accuracy of 0.86 (95% CI=0.85-0.87) and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% CI=0.82-0.84) in the internal validation set (SEER dataset). In the external validation set of 149 patients, the best model achieved a class accuracy of 0.85 (95% CI=0.86-0.86) and an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI=0.85-0.86). The model predicted CSS more accurately than OS.

Conclusion: Using machine learning, we were able to predict the prognosis of patients with endometrial cancer.

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基于机器学习的子宫内膜癌生存预后预测模型的开发和外部验证：一项基于人群的研究。

背景/目的：子宫内膜癌多为早期癌，预后良好，但复发性子宫内膜癌预后较差。准确的预后对癌症患者的治疗至关重要。本研究旨在利用机器学习评估子宫内膜癌的生存结果。材料和方法：我们使用来自监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库的数据，构建机器学习模型来预测5年总生存期（OS）和癌症特异性生存期（CSS）。变量包括患者人口统计学、病理因素和治疗因素。结果：共纳入71506例患者的OS率和66368例患者的CSS率。对于OS的预测，在内部验证集（SEER数据集）中，最佳机器学习模型的类精度为0.86 (95% CI=0.85-0.87)，曲线下面积（AUC）为0.83 （95% CI=0.82-0.84）。在149例患者的外部验证集中，最佳模型的分类准确率为0.85 (95% CI=0.86-0.86)， AUC为0.85 （95% CI=0.85-0.86）。该模型对CSS的预测比OS更准确。结论：利用机器学习，我们能够预测子宫内膜癌患者的预后。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Anticancer research 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

10.00%

发文量

566

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： ANTICANCER RESEARCH is an independent international peer-reviewed journal devoted to the rapid publication of high quality original articles and reviews on all aspects of experimental and clinical oncology. Prompt evaluation of all submitted articles in confidence and rapid publication within 1-2 months of acceptance are guaranteed. ANTICANCER RESEARCH was established in 1981 and is published monthly (bimonthly until the end of 2008). Each annual volume contains twelve issues and index. Each issue may be divided into three parts (A: Reviews, B: Experimental studies, and C: Clinical and Epidemiological studies). Special issues, presenting the proceedings of meetings or groups of papers on topics of significant progress, will also be included in each volume. There is no limitation to the number of pages per issue.