Exploring the interplay of ecological footprints, carbon footprint, urbanization, air freight transport, foreign direct investment, and industrialization in North Africa

Abstract

This study investigates the environmental repercussions of urbanization, industrialization, air freight transport, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the ecological footprint and CO₂ emissions in four North African countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, over the period from 1990 to 2018. The impetus for this research is rooted in the region's escalating environmental vulnerability, characterized by increasing pollution levels, rapid urbanization, and a substantial reliance on fossil fuels, rendering the pursuit of sustainable development strategies imperative. To fulfill these objectives, two extended models based on the STIRPAT framework were formulated. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is employed to analyze both short- and long-term dynamics. Granger causality tests utilizing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and robustness assessments employing Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) estimators are integral to the analysis. The empirical findings indicate that air freight transport, industrialization, and urbanization significantly contribute to the escalation of the ecological footprint and CO₂ emissions, although the effects differ across the countries studied. Conversely, the impact of FDI is heterogeneous, largely contingent upon its sectoral orientation. These findings imply that public policies in North Africa should focus on promoting environmentally sustainable industrial practices, enhancing urban planning, and channeling FDI towards sustainable sectors. Additionally, regional collaboration and investment in cleaner transportation infrastructure and technological innovation could mitigate environmental degradation while facilitating economic growth.