The Uncertainty of Forced Displacement: How Language and Violence Shaped Displacement Trajectories During Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

Launched by President Putin to ostensibly “protect” the people living in the predominantly Russian-speaking Eastern regions, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 produced the largest population displacement in Europe since World War II. Using unique data from a rapidly deployed online survey conducted throughout Ukraine and Europe from April to July 2022 (N = 7,974), this study examines how language and exposure to violence may have influenced trajectories of forced migration shortly after Russia's invasion. By exploiting the timing of the survey, it examines how contextual and conflict-specific factors shaped the (un)certainty of migration movements and beliefs about return. Results show that exposure to conflict in the form of witnessing or being injured by a blast explosion was associated with shorter-distance moves within Ukraine. Findings suggest disparate trajectories of displacement by language identities. Although the survey was only available in Ukrainian, and did not include those who fled (or were deported) to Russia, Ukrainian respondents who reported speaking Russian as both their “native” and “home” language (25% of the sample) had the highest probability of relocating to nonbordering countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. Independent of their origin and destination, Russian-speakers were also more likely to be in transit or uncertain about their destination, and less hopeful about a potential return. Thus, Russia's invasion created profound uncertainty for Russian-speaking Ukrainians and appears to have pushed them even farther away.