Temporary and sustained changes in alcoholic and alcohol-free or low-alcohol drinks sales during January? A time series analysis of seasonal patterning in Great Britain

Abstract

Introduction

Sales of alcohol-free and low-alcohol (no/lo) drinks are increasing rapidly but the drivers of this trend remain unclear. Reductions in alcohol consumption during January, including through temporary abstinence campaigns like Dry January, are one potential driver. This study estimates the immediate and long-term impact of changes made in January on sales of standard alcoholic and no/lo drinks in Great Britain.

Methods

Population-level sales data for standard alcoholic and no/lo drinks were analysed using ARIMAX time series models for the on-trade (e.g. bars; June 2014 to January 2024), off-trade (i.e. shops; January 2020 to December 2023), and overall market (January 2020 to December 2023). Outcome measures were sales volumes of standard alcoholic and no/lo drinks in servings and the percentage of total servings that were no/lo drinks.

Results

In the overall market, alcoholic drink sales were lower in January than other months and highest in December (β=+263,074,000 servings; 95 %CI 230,629,000––295,520,000), while no/lo drink sales were higher in January compared to February, March, and the autumn months (lowest in November; β=-1081,000 servings; 95 %CI -1965,000 ––-196,000). The percentage of servings that were no/lo drinks peaked in January. There was uncertain evidence of large reductions in alcoholic drink sales each January driving long-term reductions in the off-trade (β=-48,383,000 servings; 95 %CI -106,104––9338,000) but there did not appear to be substantial impacts on other long-term trends.

Conclusions

There are short-term decreases in standard alcoholic drink sales and increases in no/lo drink sales in January but there appeared to be no substantial sustained changes.