An integrated optimization and deep learning pipeline for predicting live birth success in IVF using feature optimization and transformer-based models

Abstract

The complicated interplay of clinical, demographic, and procedural factors makes it difficult to predict the success of in vitro fertilization (IVF), a commonly used assisted reproductive technology. The goal of this research was to create an artificial intelligence (AI) pipeline that could predict live birth outcomes in IVF treatments with high accuracy.

Design

We evaluated prediction performance by integrating different feature selection methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), with different machine learning-based classifiers, including random forest (RF) and decision tree, as well as deep learning-based classifiers, including a custom transformer-based model and a Tab_transformer model with an attention mechanism. Additionally, this study analyzes confounding factors like patient age and previous IVF cycles and explores the influence of different perturbation and preprocessing techniques and validates the model’s robustness under varied scenarios. In addition, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis was performed to enhance interpretability of methods.

Results

This research demonstrated that the best performance was achieved by combining PSO for feature selection with the Tab_transformer-based deep learning model, yielding an accuracy of 97 % and an AUC of 98.4 %, highlighting its significant performance in prediction live births. By identifying the most significant predictors of infertility and guaranteeing clinical significance, SHAP analysis significantly improved interpretability.

Conclusion

With the accuracy and interpretability, this study develops a strong AI pipeline for predicting live birth outcomes in IVF. This study establishes a highly accurate AI pipeline for predicting live birth outcomes in IVF, demonstrating its potential to enhance personalized fertility treatments.