A Retrospective Analysis of Circular Economy and Industrial Decarbonization Metrics in the United States, 1998–2022

Abstract

While technical strategies for industrial decarbonization can be synergistic with those supporting a circular economy, metrics for decarbonization and circularity are distinct (and not necessarily correlated). We analyze time-series data for the period 1998–2022 synthesized from multiple U.S. governmental datasets, including new input/output data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis's 2023 Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts, to take a “pulse check” on decarbonization and circularity metrics in the United States. This includes a retrospective analysis of trends in industrial emissions intensity over time (based on historical Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey data) and correlations with salient economic metrics for 18 U.S. manufacturing industries. Some industries are reducing their emissions much faster than others, and we show that this pace of change—at least for certain industries—has to do with industry growth rates as well as predictable lock-in effects related to investments in capital assets. The analysis is extended to an initial exploration of interconnectedness between industry growth, material flows, and indicators relevant to the circular economy. We leverage data from economic input–output tables to assess the intensiveness of virgin material use in U.S. manufacturing supply chains, and comment on the usefulness of these measures as high-level indicators for circularity and circularity potential.