Effects of isolation and information dissemination on epidemic dynamics in multiplex networks

IF 5.6 1区 数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Zehui Zhang , Kangci Zhu , Fang Wang , Lilin Liu , Lin Wang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Epidemics pose major challenges to public health, and effective isolation strategies are essential for curbing disease transmission. However, traditional epidemic models often overlook two critical aspects: the duration of isolation for infected individuals and the role of information dissemination. To address these limitations, we propose a novel epidemic model based on a two-layer multiplex network that captures the interactions between isolation strategies, disease transmission, and the spread of disease-related information. In this framework, one layer represents information dissemination, while the other represents disease dynamics incorporating isolation measures. Using the microscopic Markov chain (MMC) approach, we derive expressions for the epidemic threshold and analyze its relationship with the basic reproduction number (R0), showing that isolation significantly influences R0. Results from Monte Carlo (MC) simulations closely match those from the MMC analysis, validating the model’s accuracy. Our findings demonstrate that isolation strategies not only suppress disease transmission but also enhance information dissemination through positive feedback. Notably, under low infection rates, the duration of isolation is more effective than its frequency in controlling outbreaks. These insights provide practical guidance for designing optimized isolation strategies that balance epidemiological effectiveness with social and economic considerations, offering valuable input for evidence-based public health policy.
隔离和信息传播对多路网络中疫情动态的影响
流行病对公共卫生构成重大挑战,有效的隔离战略对于遏制疾病传播至关重要。然而,传统的流行病模型往往忽略了两个关键方面:受感染个体的隔离时间和信息传播的作用。为了解决这些限制,我们提出了一种基于双层多路网络的新型流行病模型,该模型捕捉了隔离策略、疾病传播和疾病相关信息传播之间的相互作用。在这个框架中,一层代表信息传播,而另一层代表包含隔离措施的疾病动态。利用微观马尔可夫链(MMC)方法推导了流行阈值表达式,并分析了其与基本繁殖数(R0)的关系,结果表明隔离对R0有显著影响。蒙特卡罗(MC)模拟的结果与MMC分析的结果非常吻合,验证了模型的准确性。研究结果表明,隔离策略不仅可以抑制疾病传播,还可以通过正反馈增强信息传播。值得注意的是,在低感染率情况下,隔离时间比隔离频率在控制疫情方面更有效。这些见解为设计优化的隔离策略提供了实际指导,从而平衡流行病学有效性与社会和经济因素,为基于证据的公共卫生政策提供了宝贵的投入。
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来源期刊
Chaos Solitons & Fractals
Chaos Solitons & Fractals 物理-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
13.20
自引率
10.30%
发文量
1087
审稿时长
9 months
期刊介绍: Chaos, Solitons & Fractals strives to establish itself as a premier journal in the interdisciplinary realm of Nonlinear Science, Non-equilibrium, and Complex Phenomena. It welcomes submissions covering a broad spectrum of topics within this field, including dynamics, non-equilibrium processes in physics, chemistry, and geophysics, complex matter and networks, mathematical models, computational biology, applications to quantum and mesoscopic phenomena, fluctuations and random processes, self-organization, and social phenomena.
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