Achieving win–win outcomes between urban growth and urban greening: The role of environmental governance

Abstract

Rapid urbanization challenges environmental sustainability, yet synergistic pathways remain underexplored in developing economies. This study investigates the impact of urban growth on urban greenness and the moderating role of environmental governance, using empirical data from 273 cities in China (2001–2019) and a two-way fixed effects model. Key findings are as follows: (1) An N-shaped relationship exists between urban economic growth and urban greenness, with inflection points at approximately 3500 CNY and 130,000 CNY in per capita GDP. Most cities in 2019 had surpassed the first inflection point but remained in the declining phase. Population density significantly increases greenness (β = 0.0139∗, p < 0.1), while land expansion has no statistically significant impact. (2) Environmental governance positively moderates growth–greening relationships. Economic growth enhances greenness when governance intensity (EGOV) exceeds 1.8 (marginal effect: +0.0204, p < 0.01) and land expansion improves greenness at EGOV >0.5 (interaction effect: +0.0003, p < 0.1). (3) Spatial heterogeneity analyses confirm stronger governance effects in western/northeastern regions and large cities. These results indicate that effective environmental governance can mitigate adverse effects of economic expansion, fostering a “win-win” between urban development and greening. Policymakers should prioritize governance capacity building, stage-adaptive interventions, and inter-city collaboration to balance development and sustainability.