Trends in burdens of dengue fever among children aged 0‒14 years in China from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, and projections up to 2035

Abstract

Objective

Children below 14 years of age are highly vulnerable to dengue infection and are at a greater risk of developing severe dengue illness. This study aimed to investigate the trends in the burden of dengue fever among children below 14 years of age in China from 1990 to 2021 and to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2035.

Methods

Based on the datasets derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the following data were collected from dengue-affected children aged ≤ 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021: number and rate of incident dengue cases, number of prevalent dengue cases, number of deaths due to dengue, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to dengue. The trends in disease burden were examined based on average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change, and the burdens were projected from 2022 to 2035 by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

The incidence and prevalence of dengue fever were increased in children aged ≤ 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021 (AAPC = 5.42 % and 5.44 %, respectively, P < 0.001), while the mortality and DALYs rates were reduced (AAPC = −8.21 % and −7.55 %, respectively, P < 0.001). The burden was comparable between genders, with numerically lower incidence and prevalence in boys than in girls. The lowest incidence and prevalence and the highest mortality and DALYs rates were observed in children aged < 5 years. The incidence and prevalence rates were projected to increase from 2022 to 2035; in contrast, the mortality and DALYs rates were projected to decrease during this period.

Conclusions

Although the mortality and DALYs rates of dengue fever decreased significantly in children aged 0‒14 years in China from 1990 to 2021, the incidence and prevalence increased remarkably. Enhanced surveillance and ample health education programs and preventive interventions are recommended for targeting this high-risk population.