Does global warming affect the ecological surplus?

Abstract

This paper discusses the influence of global warming on the ecological surplus in 122 countries from 1992 to 2020 from a global perspective using a two-stage least squares approach. The robust results show that global warming has reduced the ecological surplus through an improvement in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP and reductions in resource rents and forestland. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the ecological surplus decreases with global warming in low-latitude countries and is unaffected by global warming in middle- and high-latitude countries. In addition, global warming positively affects the ecological surplus of developed countries but negatively affects that of developing countries. Global warming also has an adverse impact on the ecological surplus in energy-intensive countries but not on that in low-energy-intensity countries. Additionally, global warming reduces the ecological surplus for African Union (AU) countries but has no effect on European Union (EU) or Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries. Also, population aging further reduces the impact of global warming on the ecological surplus. This study provides evidence for maintaining the ecological surplus and ecosystems.