Unveiling connections: Mobility and dengue case networks on an intraurban scale

Abstract

This study examines the intraurban connections between mobility and dengue case networks in São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil. Our research aims to elucidate the correlation between human mobility patterns and the spread of dengue, a significant public health issue exacerbated by urban infrastructure deficits. We used daily dengue case data from 2014 to 2024 and mobility data derived from a 2011 urban mobility survey to build a complex network. Using mutual information, Spearman rank correlation, and linear regression, we quantified that regions that are geographically closer or have a greater flow of people between them have remarkable similarities between their time series of dengue cases. Our findings indicate that mobility significantly influences dengue spread, with higher mutual information values during periods of high dengue incidence, such as in 2015. As mobility increases, so does the correlation between dengue cases, underscoring the importance of considering intraurban mobility in public health strategies. In particular, our results demonstrate that mobility has a more significant influence than distance on the spread of cases. These insights could inform more effective epidemic control measures and urban planning policies to mitigate the impact of arboviruses in densely populated areas.