Bridging net-zero, nature-positive, and people-positive goals: A case study in the polyester industry

Abstract

Sustainability has become a central focus in global discourse, demanding solutions that integrate three critical goals: net-zero emissions, nature-positive outcomes, and people-positive development. Progress in emissions and resource reduction exists, but integrating net-zero, nature-, and people-positive goals remains limited. This study applies the open-source Chemicals and Materials Industry (CMI) model to assess environmental, economic, and social impacts of polyester fiber production, spanning current and emerging technologies. The model was validated against literature, and sensitivity analysis highlights circularity as a key lever, capable of reducing emissions by up to 40%, though often requiring significant investment and risking widened social inequalities.

Our findings reveal critical trade-offs. While biobased materials and renewable energy can enable 100% emission reduction, they may simultaneously drive resource extraction, biodiversity loss, and land use change. Global-scale assessments further show that even if country-level trends appear sustainable, the cumulative impact may exceed safe and just environmental limits. These insights underscore the importance of evaluating decarbonization strategies not only by emissions, but also by their broader ecological and social implications.

To align climate goals with ecological restoration, we quantify nature-based solutions. For instance, forests sequester $\sim$0.5 kg CO${}_2$/m${}^2$/year, allowing decision-makers to calculate reforestation needs for emissions offsets. This approach makes nature-positive pathways measurable and actionable, transforming ecosystem services into integral components of climate mitigation.

Simultaneously, improving labor conditions and access to sustainable inputs supports people-positive goals but can raise production costs. Despite trade-offs, combining renewables, biobased feedstocks, and circular practices creates win–win–win pathways—cutting emissions, restoring ecosystems, and promoting equity.