Predicted losses over the 21st century in climatically suitable areas of threatened Muriquis (Primates, Brachyteles) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot

Abstract

Despite conservation plans had been elaborated for the critically endangered Muriqui species (Brachyteles arachnoides and B. hypoxanthus), they do not take into account the current climate change. In order to provide a dynamic overview of the potential distributional species’ range over successive decades (four future climate change time slices: 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090), I aimed to answer the following questions: i) Will the climatically suitable areas of the two Muriqui species be lost continuously or concentrated at a given specific time slice over this century? ii) Where, in the geographical space, are concentrated the losses and/or gains of predictive areas? and iii) What are the extent of the distributional range shifts for the species over the current century? Using selected climatic variables, four ecological niche modelling algorithms, and an ensemble approach to generate final binary distribution models, I found that the main climate change effects on the distribution of the two Brachyteles species are related to continuous losses in their climatically suitable areas at magnitudes varying from ∼44 % (B. hypoxanthus) to ∼61 % (B. arachnoides) until the end of this century. These presumed losses will be followed by northeastward range shifts and the main potential distributions of both species are likely to be restricted to the coastal Atlantic Forest, posing specific challenges of local extinction risk for inland populations of both species.