The box office as a leading indicator of investor sentiment

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107990

Guy Kaplanski

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study hypothesizes that shifts in investor sentiment appear more rapidly in individual behavior, as reflected by box office gross real earnings, than in traditional stock market economic indicators. The results show that box office real gross earnings serve as a leading contrarian indicator of investor sentiment, improving out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Economically, low sentiment reduces discretionary spending, prompting a shift to more affordable leisure activities such as moviegoing. Behaviorally, low sentiment increases the demand for escapism, which films provide. Box office real gross earnings, which reflect a uniform, low-cost, and purely discretionary activity measured daily at the national level, offer a timely and sensitive signal of investor sentiment.

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票房作为投资者情绪的领先指标

本研究假设，与传统的股市经济指标相比，投资者情绪的转变在个人行为中表现得更快，正如票房实际总收入所反映的那样。结果表明，票房实际毛收入是投资者情绪的主要反向指标，提高了样本外预测的准确性。经济上，低迷的情绪减少了可自由支配的支出，促使人们转向更负担得起的休闲活动，比如看电影。从行为上讲，情绪低落增加了逃避现实的需求，而电影提供了这种需求。票房实际毛收入反映了一种统一的、低成本的、纯属自由支配的活动，每天在全国范围内进行衡量，它提供了反映投资者情绪的及时而敏感的信号。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance