How Plans Prepare for Future Uncertainty: Integrating Land Change Modeling and the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™.

Abstract

This study integrates Land Change Modeling with the Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard^™ methodology to assess coastal communities' preparedness for uncertain future urban growth and flood hazards. Findings indicate that, under static climate conditions, the network of plans in Tampa is well prepared across all urban growth scenarios, but less so in the face of a changing climate. Specifically, scenario outputs that consider climate change suggest the need for more resilient growth to reduce flood vulnerability compared with the current land use plan. Notably, some existing policies are likely to lead to counterproductive outcomes in a future with more extensive flooding.