{"title":"Time-Varying Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis.","authors":"Patrick M LeBlanc, David Banks","doi":"10.1002/sim.70160","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The presence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) in complicated skin and soft structure infections (cSSSI) is associated with greater health risks and economic costs to patients. There is concern that MRSA is becoming resistant to other \"gold standard\" treatments such as vancomycin, and there is disagreement about the relative efficacy of vancomycin compared to linezolid. There are several review papers employing Bayesian Network Meta-Analyses (BNMAs) to investigate which treatments are best for MRSA-related cSSSIs, but none address time-based design inconsistencies. This paper proposes a time-varying BNMA (tBNMA), which models time-varying treatment effects across studies using a Gaussian Process kernel. A dataset is compiled from nine existing MRSA cSSSI NMA review papers containing 58 studies comparing 19 treatments over 19 years. The tBNMA finds evidence of a non-linear trend in the treatment effect of vancomycin-it became less effective than linezolid between 2002 and 2007, but has since recovered statistical equivalence.</p>","PeriodicalId":21879,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Medicine","volume":"44 15-17","pages":"e70160"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistics in Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.70160","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The presence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) in complicated skin and soft structure infections (cSSSI) is associated with greater health risks and economic costs to patients. There is concern that MRSA is becoming resistant to other "gold standard" treatments such as vancomycin, and there is disagreement about the relative efficacy of vancomycin compared to linezolid. There are several review papers employing Bayesian Network Meta-Analyses (BNMAs) to investigate which treatments are best for MRSA-related cSSSIs, but none address time-based design inconsistencies. This paper proposes a time-varying BNMA (tBNMA), which models time-varying treatment effects across studies using a Gaussian Process kernel. A dataset is compiled from nine existing MRSA cSSSI NMA review papers containing 58 studies comparing 19 treatments over 19 years. The tBNMA finds evidence of a non-linear trend in the treatment effect of vancomycin-it became less effective than linezolid between 2002 and 2007, but has since recovered statistical equivalence.
期刊介绍：
The journal aims to influence practice in medicine and its associated sciences through the publication of papers on statistical and other quantitative methods. Papers will explain new methods and demonstrate their application, preferably through a substantive, real, motivating example or a comprehensive evaluation based on an illustrative example. Alternatively, papers will report on case-studies where creative use or technical generalizations of established methodology is directed towards a substantive application. Reviews of, and tutorials on, general topics relevant to the application of statistics to medicine will also be published. The main criteria for publication are appropriateness of the statistical methods to a particular medical problem and clarity of exposition. Papers with primarily mathematical content will be excluded. The journal aims to enhance communication between statisticians, clinicians and medical researchers.
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