Global, regional, and national burden of heart failure and its risk factors between 1990-2021 and projections to 2050: an analysis of the global burden of disease study.

Abstract

Objectives: At present, there is a lack of recent heart failure (HF) epidemiological data up to 2021. This study aims to assess the HF burden and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021 and project trends to 2050.

Methods: We derived HF prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, performing subgroup analyses by sex, age, sociodemographic index (SDI), and regions. Health inequalities were measured using the Inequality Slope Index and Concentration Index. Additionally, we made a decomposition analysis of the HF burden and forecasted its impact by 2050.

Results: The global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized YLD rate (ASYR) of HF were 676.68 (95% UI: 598.68 to 776.84) and 64.7 (95% UI: 44.2 to 89.47) per 100,000 people and increased by 5.5% and 5.9 % from 1990 to 2021, respectively. The ASPR and ASYR were higher in regions in the relatively higher SDI quintile, while the HF burden in regions in the lower SDI quintile is increasing. Ischemic heart disease accounted for the highest ASPR of HF globally [244.02 (95% UI: 179.09 to 322.13)], followed by hypertensive heart disease [148.32 (95% UI: 117.32 to 186.28)]. The ASPR and ASYR of HF are projected to rise from 2022 to 2050, with males dominating.

Conclusion: The escalating HF burden represents a critical public health challenge, necessitating immediate intervention. Policymakers must devise precise strategies aimed at curbing and preventing the HF burden.