Alejandro H. Wences , Lizbeth Peñaloza , Matthias Steinrücken , Arno Siri-Jégousse
{"title":"The TMRCA of general genealogies in populations with deterministically varying size","authors":"Alejandro H. Wences , Lizbeth Peñaloza , Matthias Steinrücken , Arno Siri-Jégousse","doi":"10.1016/j.tpb.2025.06.002","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of a sample of finite size in a wide class of genealogical models for populations with deterministically varying size. This is made possible by recently developed results on inhomogeneous phase-type random variables, allowing us to obtain the density and the moments of the TMRCA of time-dependent coalescent processes in terms of matrix formulas. We also provide matrix simplifications permitting a more straightforward calculation. With these results, the TMRCA provides an explanatory variable to distinguish different evolutionary scenarios, and to infer model parameters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49437,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical Population Biology","volume":"165 ","pages":"Pages 1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Theoretical Population Biology","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580925000401","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We study the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of a sample of finite size in a wide class of genealogical models for populations with deterministically varying size. This is made possible by recently developed results on inhomogeneous phase-type random variables, allowing us to obtain the density and the moments of the TMRCA of time-dependent coalescent processes in terms of matrix formulas. We also provide matrix simplifications permitting a more straightforward calculation. With these results, the TMRCA provides an explanatory variable to distinguish different evolutionary scenarios, and to infer model parameters.
期刊介绍:
An interdisciplinary journal, Theoretical Population Biology presents articles on theoretical aspects of the biology of populations, particularly in the areas of demography, ecology, epidemiology, evolution, and genetics. Emphasis is on the development of mathematical theory and models that enhance the understanding of biological phenomena.
Articles highlight the motivation and significance of the work for advancing progress in biology, relying on a substantial mathematical effort to obtain biological insight. The journal also presents empirical results and computational and statistical methods directly impinging on theoretical problems in population biology.