{"title":"Estimation of Plant Production in North-Central Rangelands of Iran: Emphasis on Response to Precipitation Thresholds","authors":"Hamed Joneidi Jafari , Khaled Osati , Bing Liu , Nahid Azizi , Pouyan Dehghan Rahimabadi","doi":"10.1016/j.rama.2025.05.006","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Total annual precipitation cannot adequately represent the effective precipitation necessary for plant growth and production. In this research, forage production in north-central Iran rangelands was modeled by analyzing the effective precipitation during 10 water years, from 2005–2006 to 2014–2015. The production of key species, including <em>Artemisia sieberi, Ephedra intermedia, Zygophyllum eurypterum, Stipa barbata, Scariola orientalis, Anabasis setifera</em>, and annual plants, was measured. The relationship between forage production and total precipitation amounts, total precipitation exceeding 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 mm, and temperature was quantified, and an optimal multivariate regression model was introduced to predict regional forage production for each species. Results revealed an average annual forage production of 57.71 kg · ha<sup>−1</sup>. Notably, <em>Z. eurypterum</em> exhibited minimal production fluctuations, ranging from 16.1 to 18.4 kg · ha<sup>−1</sup>, whereas annual species displayed a maximum coefficient of variation (79%). The most accurate model for estimating annual species forage production was based on April precipitation and April–May temperatures [Relative Root Mean Squared Error (RRMSE) = 0.19], which accounted for 98% of the variation (<em>P</em> value < 0.01). The results also showed that the most accurate linear model for estimating total forage production was based on March–June precipitation events exceeding 5 mm, with <em>R</em> = 0.92 in the calibration step and RRMSE = 0.07 in the validation step. The results can be used for estimating the annual forage production, determining grazing capacity, predicting future changes in forage production, and informing optimal rangeland management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49634,"journal":{"name":"Rangeland Ecology & Management","volume":"102 ","pages":"Pages 18-28"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Rangeland Ecology & Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1550742425000636","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Total annual precipitation cannot adequately represent the effective precipitation necessary for plant growth and production. In this research, forage production in north-central Iran rangelands was modeled by analyzing the effective precipitation during 10 water years, from 2005–2006 to 2014–2015. The production of key species, including Artemisia sieberi, Ephedra intermedia, Zygophyllum eurypterum, Stipa barbata, Scariola orientalis, Anabasis setifera, and annual plants, was measured. The relationship between forage production and total precipitation amounts, total precipitation exceeding 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 mm, and temperature was quantified, and an optimal multivariate regression model was introduced to predict regional forage production for each species. Results revealed an average annual forage production of 57.71 kg · ha−1. Notably, Z. eurypterum exhibited minimal production fluctuations, ranging from 16.1 to 18.4 kg · ha−1, whereas annual species displayed a maximum coefficient of variation (79%). The most accurate model for estimating annual species forage production was based on April precipitation and April–May temperatures [Relative Root Mean Squared Error (RRMSE) = 0.19], which accounted for 98% of the variation (P value < 0.01). The results also showed that the most accurate linear model for estimating total forage production was based on March–June precipitation events exceeding 5 mm, with R = 0.92 in the calibration step and RRMSE = 0.07 in the validation step. The results can be used for estimating the annual forage production, determining grazing capacity, predicting future changes in forage production, and informing optimal rangeland management.
期刊介绍:
Rangeland Ecology & Management publishes all topics-including ecology, management, socioeconomic and policy-pertaining to global rangelands. The journal''s mission is to inform academics, ecosystem managers and policy makers of science-based information to promote sound rangeland stewardship. Author submissions are published in five manuscript categories: original research papers, high-profile forum topics, concept syntheses, as well as research and technical notes.
Rangelands represent approximately 50% of the Earth''s land area and provision multiple ecosystem services for large human populations. This expansive and diverse land area functions as coupled human-ecological systems. Knowledge of both social and biophysical system components and their interactions represent the foundation for informed rangeland stewardship. Rangeland Ecology & Management uniquely integrates information from multiple system components to address current and pending challenges confronting global rangelands.