Traceability and projected patterns of Africa’s land use systems and climate variability (1993–2053)

Abstract

This study investigates the causality between land use and land cover change (LULCC), and variations in temperature and precipitation across Africa. To do this, we employ integrated remote sensing techniques, causal analyses, and representative studies. We further utilize Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) and Random Forest (RF) to simulate land use scenarios from 2033 to 2053. The findings reveal a complex interplay of socio-political, economic, and biophysical factors driving LULCC from 1993 to 2023. During this period, northern and western Africa experienced forest regrowth (+2.61 %), while deserts (-12.29 %), grassland/shrubs (-14.20 %), and farmlands (-14.53 %) decreased. In contrast, built-up areas expanded by + 134.63 %, and water bodies increased by + 71.63 %. The predicted trends indicate continued reductions in deserts and bare land, with annual decreases of 0.59 % and a decline of 0.48 % for grasslands/shrubs over the next 30 years. The current study achieved a 96 % accuracy rate based on the samples used throughout the study duration. Rising temperatures in northern Africa are associated with increased desertification, while dense forests and water bodies in central and southern Africa help mitigate heat. K-means clustering identifies distinct regional patterns in the impacts of LULCC, stressing the need for targeted interventions. The insights generated will be valuable for regions with limited resources and institutional capacity to address environmental challenges associated with these undesired changes. Ultimately, these findings can foster stronger collaboration within Africa’s economic blocs, supporting regional efforts toward sustainable development, effective land management, and climate adaptation.