{"title":"Bayesian inference for generalized linear models via quasi-posteriors.","authors":"D Agnoletto, T Rigon, D B Dunson","doi":"10.1093/biomet/asaf022","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Generalized linear models are routinely used for modelling relationships between a response variable and a set of covariates. The simple form of a generalized linear model comes with easy interpretability, but also leads to concerns about model misspecification impacting inferential conclusions. A popular semiparametric solution adopted in the frequentist literature is quasilikelihood, which improves robustness by only requiring correct specification of the first two moments. We develop a robust approach to Bayesian inference in generalized linear models through quasi-posterior distributions. We show that quasi-posteriors provide a coherent generalized Bayes inference method, while also approximating so-called coarsened posteriors. In so doing, we obtain new insights into the choice of coarsening parameter. Asymptotically, the quasi-posterior converges in total variation to a normal distribution and has important connections with the loss-likelihood bootstrap posterior. We demonstrate that it is also well calibrated in terms of frequentist coverage. Moreover, the loss-scale parameter has a clear interpretation as a dispersion, and this leads to a consolidated method-of-moments estimator.</p>","PeriodicalId":9001,"journal":{"name":"Biometrika","volume":"112 2","pages":"asaf022"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12206450/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Biometrika","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asaf022","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Generalized linear models are routinely used for modelling relationships between a response variable and a set of covariates. The simple form of a generalized linear model comes with easy interpretability, but also leads to concerns about model misspecification impacting inferential conclusions. A popular semiparametric solution adopted in the frequentist literature is quasilikelihood, which improves robustness by only requiring correct specification of the first two moments. We develop a robust approach to Bayesian inference in generalized linear models through quasi-posterior distributions. We show that quasi-posteriors provide a coherent generalized Bayes inference method, while also approximating so-called coarsened posteriors. In so doing, we obtain new insights into the choice of coarsening parameter. Asymptotically, the quasi-posterior converges in total variation to a normal distribution and has important connections with the loss-likelihood bootstrap posterior. We demonstrate that it is also well calibrated in terms of frequentist coverage. Moreover, the loss-scale parameter has a clear interpretation as a dispersion, and this leads to a consolidated method-of-moments estimator.
期刊介绍:
Biometrika is primarily a journal of statistics in which emphasis is placed on papers containing original theoretical contributions of direct or potential value in applications. From time to time, papers in bordering fields are also published.