Prediction of Weight Loss and Regain Based on Multiomic and Phenotypic Features: Results From a Calorie-Restricted Feeding Trial

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To identify baseline multiomic and phenotypic predictors and develop prediction models for weight and body composition loss and regain in the Low-Carbohydrate Diet and Time-Restricted Eating (LEAN-TIME) trial. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A post hoc analysis was conducted of the LEAN-TIME feeding trial using data from 88 adults with overweight/obesity completing a 12-week calorie-restricted weight-loss phase and 79 completing a 28-week weight-regain phase. Baseline dietary, metabolic, fecal metabolome, and gut microbiome data were candidate predictors of changes in weight, body fat mass (BFM), and soft lean mass (SLM). Multivariable regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model were used to identify predictors and develop weighted-sum prediction models. RESULTS Multiomic and phenotypic models significantly outperformed phenotype-only models (P < 0.05), demonstrating strong predictive performance during both phases. During weight loss, the multiomic and phenotypic model yielded R2 values of 0.49, 0.61, and 0.54 for changes in weight, BFM, and SLM, respectively, with corresponding root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 1.59, 1.41, and 0.98 kg. For binary classification of clinically meaningful weight loss (≥5%), the model achieved an area under the curve of 0.95 (sensitivity 94.12%; specificity 86.79%). During weight regain, R2 values reached 0.72, 0.73, and 0.66 for weight, BFM, and SLM (RMSEs 1.40, 1.62, and 0.73 kg), respectively. Several key baseline predictors, primarily gut microbes and fecal metabolites, such as N-acetyl-l-aspartic acid, Ruminococcus callidus, and Bifidobacterium adolescentis, were shared for weight and body composition changes during both phases. CONCLUSIONS Baseline multiomic and phenotypic data effectively predict weight and body composition loss and regain, offering insights for personalized weight management.