Cellular automata models for simulation and prediction of urban land use change: Development and prospects

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and land-use changes are placing immense pressure on resources, infrastructure, and environmental sustainability. To address these, accurate urban simulation models are essential for sustainable development and governance. Among them, Cellular Automata (CA) models have become key tools for predicting urban expansion, optimizing land-use planning, and supporting data-driven decision-making. This review provides a comprehensive examination of the development of urban cellular automata (UCA) models, presenting a new framework to enhance individual UCA sub-modules within the context of emerging technologies, sustainable environments, and public governance. By addressing gaps in prior UCA modelling reviews—particularly in the integration and optimization of UCA sub-module technologies—this framework is designed to simplify UCA model understanding and development. We systematically review pioneering case studies, deconstruct current UCA operational processes, and explore modern technologies, such as big data and artificial intelligence, to optimize these sub-modules further. We discuss current limitations within UCA models and propose future pathways, emphasizing the necessity of comprehensive analyses for effective UCA simulations. Proposed solutions include strengthening our understanding of urban growth mechanisms, examining spatial positioning and temporal evolution dynamics, and enhancing urban geographic simulations with deep learning techniques to support sustainable transitions in public governance. These improvements offer data-driven decision support for environmental management, advancing policies that foster sustainable urban development.