{"title":"Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.","authors":"Hongrui Zhao, Zhenping Zhao, Xuan Yang, Yuchang Zhou, Ainan Jia, Jiangmei Liu, Peng Yin, Yamin Bai, Zhenxing Yang, Maigeng Zhou, Xiujuan Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s11684-025-1141-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The Healthy China 2030 Plan set the goal of reducing premature deaths from diabetes by 30% by 2030. However, there has been a lack of assessment of premature mortality for diabetes since the action plan was issued. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, calculated the premature deaths for diabetes by sex, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. We explored the temporal trend of premature mortality using the average annual percent change (AAPC) for different sexes, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we predicted premature mortality for diabetes through 2030 for China and its provinces according to the average annual change rate from 2010 to 2021. There was a first slow upward trend in premature mortality for diabetes from 0.5% in 1990 to 0.6% in 2004, and then a decline until 2021 with premature mortality of 0.4%. By 2030, only Fujian (30.3%) will achieve the desired level of reduction, with only seven provinces meeting the target for females and none for males. There is a large range in the degree of decline between inland and coastal regions, showing obvious geographic differences, and there should be a focus on balancing medical resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":12558,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers of Medicine","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers of Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11684-025-1141-7","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The Healthy China 2030 Plan set the goal of reducing premature deaths from diabetes by 30% by 2030. However, there has been a lack of assessment of premature mortality for diabetes since the action plan was issued. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, calculated the premature deaths for diabetes by sex, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. We explored the temporal trend of premature mortality using the average annual percent change (AAPC) for different sexes, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we predicted premature mortality for diabetes through 2030 for China and its provinces according to the average annual change rate from 2010 to 2021. There was a first slow upward trend in premature mortality for diabetes from 0.5% in 1990 to 0.6% in 2004, and then a decline until 2021 with premature mortality of 0.4%. By 2030, only Fujian (30.3%) will achieve the desired level of reduction, with only seven provinces meeting the target for females and none for males. There is a large range in the degree of decline between inland and coastal regions, showing obvious geographic differences, and there should be a focus on balancing medical resources.
Frontiers of MedicineONCOLOGYMEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL&-MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
CiteScore
18.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
800
期刊介绍:
Frontiers of Medicine is an international general medical journal sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China. The journal is jointly published by the Higher Education Press and Springer. Since the first issue of 2010, this journal has been indexed in PubMed/MEDLINE.
Frontiers of Medicine is dedicated to publishing original research and review articles on the latest advances in clinical and basic medicine with a focus on epidemiology, traditional Chinese medicine, translational research, healthcare, public health and health policies.