The paradox of post-pandemic travel: Reduced car travel but unabated congestion? Insights from Cambridge, UK

Abstract

Despite a marked decline in overall travel demand in Great Britain, some cities are experiencing unabated, if not worsened, traffic congestion. This study aims to investigate this paradox of post-pandemic travel through an in-depth case study of Cambridge, a city with a high proportion of highly-skilled professional employment in the UK. Using longitudinal traffic counts and car journey time data, we compare intra-day and intra-week travel demand patterns across four distinct periods between 2019 and 2024, controlling for monthly variation, school and university term, bank holidays, major public events, roadworks, traffic accidents and weather. Our model-based analysis finds that recent car and cycle demand in Cambridge remains at 11.6% and 15.8% below pre-pandemic levels, respectively, but the demand recovery has stabilised since 2022. Despite the overall reduction in travel demand, daily average journey time on key transport corridors in Cambridge has increased by 12.0% from 2022 to 2024, exemplifying the paradox of post-pandemic travel. We find that 1) the increase of average journey time is caused by worsening congestion at evening peaks and on Thursdays, with the former being the primary factor; 2) the increase of peak-time congestion is not associated with increasing demand across major modes of road transport (car, cycle, bus, van and taxi); and 3) the recent increase of journey time in Cambridge is thus likely to be caused by supply-side factors, notably the reallocation of road space for public and active modes and temporary road closures which affect overall road capacity. Important policy implications are drawn.