Impact of CEO turnover on analyst earnings forecasts: A communication disruption perspective

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107772

Mengshu Hao

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study examines how CEO turnover affects analyst earnings forecasts in Chinese A-share listed firms, focusing on communication disruptions in China’s evolving disclosure environment. Using a difference-in-differences approach, external CEO succession is found to significantly increase forecast errors and optimism due to increased information asymmetry, whereas internal succession causes less disruption. Prior analyst coverage of the new CEO’s former firm mitigates these effects, enhancing accuracy and reducing bias. Over time, analysts revise optimistic forecasts toward greater accuracy. These findings emphasize the CEO’s role in information disclosure and offer guidance for enhancing communication during leadership transitions.

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CEO离职对分析师收益预测的影响：一个沟通中断的视角

本研究考察了中国a股上市公司CEO离职对分析师收益预测的影响，重点关注中国不断变化的信息披露环境中的沟通中断。利用差异中的差异方法，我们发现由于信息不对称的增加，外部CEO继任显著增加了预测误差和乐观情绪，而内部CEO继任造成的干扰较小。之前分析师对新CEO前公司的报道减轻了这些影响，提高了准确性，减少了偏见。随着时间的推移，分析师会修正乐观的预测，以提高准确性。这些发现强调了CEO在信息披露中的作用，并为领导换届期间加强沟通提供了指导。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

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