Using species distribution modelling to identify potential translocation areas for the western chimpanzee under climate change scenarios in Ghana

Abstract

The Earth’s climate is undergoing drastic changes leading to significant global biodiversity declines. Conservation translocation offers a potential solution for managing or restoring biodiversity threatened by local extinctions due to climate change and other anthropogenic pressures. Species distribution models (SDMs) can be applied to identify candidate sites for effective translocation programmes and other relevant conservation interventions. Yet knowledge of its application for prioritising sites to restore threatened species via conservation translocation is lacking in Ghana. In this study, we applied a multidimensional approach that integrates SDM methodology and site tenure, among other factors, to identify climate-resilient candidate sites for restoring the critically endangered western chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) via translocation programmes in Ghana’s protected areas. Our results indicated that the majority (i.e., 77–92 %) of suitable habitats for western chimpanzees in the country fall outside the protected area network. Further, we showed that 20 candidate sites will remain highly suitable under current and future climates for conservation translocations (i.e., between now and 2080; very high suitability = 4 sites; high suitability = 16 sites). Our findings also suggest that essential biodiversity sites such as Kakum Conservation Area and Atewa Forest Reserve, which lie outside the native geographic range of the western chimpanzee, may be essential for conservation translocation. Researchers and practitioners can use our results combined with their knowledge of site-specific conditions and other relevant scientific information to support the conservation of the species in bioclimatically suitable protected areas of the country.