Modeling pesticide impacts on honey bee dynamics from mathematical and experimental integration

Abstract

Honey bees (Apis mellifera), essential pollinators, are critically affected by pesticides that contaminate pollen and are subsequently transported into their nests. In this study, we developed a delay differential equation model with age-specific structures, grounded in experimental data, to investigate the complex relationship between the pesticide Pristine®and honey bee population dynamics. The model enables the calculation of pollen consumption by both larvae and adults, offering deeper insights into the nutritional dynamics within hives. Our theoretical analysis revealed a significant direct linear relationship between egg and adult bee populations, determined by the ratio of adult-to-egg mortality rates, and the high death rate of adults decreases the colony population. The results indicate that adult mortality increases proportionally with pesticide concentration and alters the hive’s reproductive dynamics by shifting the timing of peak queen egg-laying. Simulations based on the model predict that high pesticide concentrations may lead to hive collapse, while control groups exhibit higher adult populations than treatment groups. These findings highlight the value of combining mathematical modeling with experimental data to understand and predict the complex effects of pesticides on honey bee populations, offering actionable insights for their conservation and management.