Construction and Validation of Risk Scoring Model for Inadequate Bowel Preparation in Elderly Patients Undergoing Colonoscopy.

IF 2.8 3区医学 Q1 Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics

Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management Pub Date : 2025-06-11 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.2147/TCRM.S503389

Yun Xu, Shan Ou, Xiu Yuan, Jie Yao, Tianwen Yang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: To establish a prediction model for the risk of inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy in the elderly, and to validate the model to test its prediction effect.

Methods: A total 927 patients who underwent colonoscopy in the First Affiliated Hospital to Chongqing Medical and Pharmaceutical College from January to December 2023 were selected as the modeling group, and were divided into the success group (839 patients) and failure group (88 patients) according to whether or not inadequate bowel preparation occurred, and then a logistic regression prediction model was established and transformed into a risk scoring system. The area under the ROC curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used for model differentiation and calibration, respectively, and the 10-fold cross-validation method was used for internal validation of the model. A total of 548 patients who underwent colonoscopy in our hospital from January to June 2024 were selected for external validation of the model.

Results: Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥65 years, diabetes mellitus, exercise habits, Bristol stool characterization scale, frailty, and ambulatory functional status were independent factors influencing the inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy in the elderly. The area under the ROC curve for the modeling group was 0.806, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed p=0.870. The area under the ROC curve of the validation group was (0.785±0.090). The area under the ROC curve of the validation group was 0.824, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed P=0.907, with a sensitivity of 73.13%, a specificity of 80.70%, and a Jordon's index of 0.538.

Conclusion: The predictive model of the risk of inadequate bowel preparation for colonoscopy in elderly people can predict the risk of inadequate bowel preparation in elderly people, and can be used as a tool for clinical caregivers to screen the high-risk group of inadequate bowel preparation in the elderly.

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老年结肠镜检查患者肠道准备不足风险评分模型的构建与验证。

目的：建立老年人结肠镜准备不充分风险的预测模型，并对模型进行验证，检验其预测效果。方法：选择2023年1月至12月在重庆医学院第一附属医院行结肠镜检查的927例患者作为建模组，根据是否发生肠道准备不充分分为成功组（839例）和失败组（88例），建立logistic回归预测模型并转化为风险评分系统。分别采用ROC曲线下面积法和Hosmer-Lemeshow检验对模型进行判别和校正，采用10倍交叉验证法对模型进行内部验证。选取2024年1月至6月在我院行结肠镜检查的548例患者，对模型进行外部验证。结果：Logistic回归分析显示，年龄≥65岁、糖尿病、运动习惯、Bristol粪便特征量表、身体虚弱、移动功能状态是影响老年人结肠镜准备不足的独立因素。建模组ROC曲线下面积为0.806，Hosmer-Lemeshow检验p=0.870。验证组的ROC曲线下面积为（0.785±0.090）。验证组ROC曲线下面积为0.824，Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P=0.907，敏感性为73.13%，特异性为80.70%,jordan’s指数为0.538。结论：老年人结肠镜下肠准备不充分风险预测模型可预测老年人肠准备不充分风险，可作为临床护理人员筛查老年人肠准备不充分高危人群的工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES-

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

3.60%

发文量

139

审稿时长

16 weeks

期刊介绍： Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management is an international, peer-reviewed journal of clinical therapeutics and risk management, focusing on concise rapid reporting of clinical studies in all therapeutic areas, outcomes, safety, and programs for the effective, safe, and sustained use of medicines, therapeutic and surgical interventions in all clinical areas. The journal welcomes submissions covering original research, clinical and epidemiological studies, reviews, guidelines, expert opinion and commentary. The journal will consider case reports but only if they make a valuable and original contribution to the literature. As of 18th March 2019, Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management will no longer consider meta-analyses for publication. The journal does not accept study protocols, animal-based or cell line-based studies.