Projected Effects of Proposed Cuts in Federal Medicaid Expenditures on Medicaid Enrollment, Uninsurance, Health Care, and Health.

Abstract

In January 2025, the Republican majority in the House of Representatives' Budget Committee offered a list of possible spending reductions to offset revenue losses from proposed tax cuts. In May, the Committee advanced a bill incorporating several reductions on the list. The Committee estimated that the 6 largest potential Medicaid cuts (for example, work requirements for some Medicaid enrollees) would each reduce the federal government's Medicaid outlays by at least $100 billion over 10 years. On the basis of the Committee's estimates of savings; Congressional Budget Office analyses; and peer-reviewed studies of the coverage, financial, and health impacts of past Medicaid expansions and contractions, the authors project the likely effects of each option and of the House bill advanced by the Budget Committee in May.

Each option individually would reduce federal Medicaid outlays by between $100 billion and $900 billion over a decade, increase the ranks of the uninsured by between 600 000 and 3 900 000 and the annual number of persons forgoing needed medical care by 129 060 to 838 890, and result in 651 to 12 626 medically preventable deaths annually. Enactment of the House bill advanced in May would increase the number of uninsured persons by 7.6 million and the number of deaths by 16 642 annually, according to a mid-range estimate. These figures exclude harms from lowering provider payments and shrinking benefits, as well as possible repercussions from states increasing taxes or shifting expenditures from other needs to make up for shortfalls in federal Medicaid funding.

Policy makers should weigh the likely health and financial harms to patients and providers of reducing Medicaid expenditures against the desirability of tax reductions, which would accrue mostly to wealthy Americans.