Market volatility across asset classes during U.S. presidential and mid-term elections

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107754

Corrado Botta , Rilwan Sakariyahu

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Does political uncertainty around elections translate to measurable market effects? This study investigates the impact of the U.S. presidential election on market volatility across different asset classes from 1992 to 2024. Using an event study approach, we document high abnormal volatility in pre-election months and during election weeks and low abnormal volatility in pre-election weeks and election months. The effects vary substantially across asset classes and are amplified during recessions. We examine multiple election characteristics, finding significant roles for political polarization, incumbent status, party changes, election margin, and international tensions.

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美国总统和中期选举期间各资产类别的市场波动

围绕选举的政治不确定性会转化为可衡量的市场影响吗？本研究考察了1992年至2024年美国总统大选对不同资产类别市场波动的影响。使用事件研究方法，我们记录了选举前几个月和选举周的高异常波动，以及选举前几周和选举月份的低异常波动。不同资产类别的影响差异很大，在衰退期间会被放大。我们研究了多种选举特征，发现政治两极分化，现任地位，政党变化，选举差额和国际紧张局势的重要作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

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