Optimal design of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) networks under uncertain geological storage volumes and CO2 price

Abstract

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is an enabling pathway for reducing CO${}_2$ emissions from large stationary sources, such as power plants, cement, iron & steel, chemical manufacturing, and other industries. Due to large number of sources and sinks and their potential connectivity, the design of optimal CCUS supply chain networks is non-trivial. Although underground reservoirs are available for CO${}_2$ sequestration, uncertainties in the exact storage volumes and the future market prices of captured CO${}_2$ pose significant additional challenges. Deterministic methods would fail to design even feasible, let alone optimal, CCUS networks under uncertain storage volumes and future selling prices of CO${}_2$. In this work, we employ a stochastic optimization approach to design not only feasible but also most economic CCUS networks under a wide range of future scenarios of geological storage volumes and selling prices. We apply the method for the design of potential nationwide and regional CCUS networks in the United States. Our analysis suggests that uncertain geological storage volumes have a notable effect on the topology and the feasibility of large networks, underscoring the need for careful consideration of these factors in CO${}_2$ storage selection. Interestingly, it is possible to ensure the feasibility of future CCUS networks for a wider range of scenarios with only a marginal increase in overall CCUS cost. Selling price uncertainty, on the other hand, affects the CCUS revenues. The network configuration mostly remains invariant to selling price variability. These results highlight the critical role of uncertainty-aware decision-making to ensure feasible and cost-effective CCUS deployment while de-risking large investments.