Product market competition and financial default: evidence from Italian private firms

IF 6.3 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Velia Gabriella Cenciarelli , Giulio Greco , Marco Maria Mattei
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Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between product market competition and financial default in private firms and the moderating role of group affiliation in this relationship. The empirical research uses a sample of Italian firms and a multivariate regression approach. It augments Altman’s default prediction model with three measures of competition: product market fluidity, HHI, and Li’s (2010) measures of competition. It analyzes the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction abilities of models augmented by competition. The findings show that competition has a significant positive association with default, suggesting that the risk-increasing effect of competition prevails over the disciplinary effect. Interaction analysis provides evidence that group affiliation moderates the effect of competition on default. Group-affiliated private firms are less likely to default than non-group-affiliated firms at similar levels of competition, signaling a disciplinary effect channeled by group affiliation. Furthermore, we find that adding product market fluidity to Altman’s model significantly increases its predictive ability. This study contributes to the literature on the financial outcomes of competition with evidence of private firms. This shows that group affiliation moderates the relationship between competition and defaults. This study also contributes to financial default studies with evidence that competition enhances default predictions. This study suggests that competition indicators might be used in financial distress early warning systems for private firms the European Union is recently promoting.

Abstract Image

产品市场竞争与金融违约:来自意大利私营企业的证据
本研究探讨了民营企业产品市场竞争与财务违约的关系,以及集团隶属关系在这一关系中的调节作用。实证研究采用意大利企业样本和多元回归方法。它增加了Altman的默认预测模型的三个竞争指标:产品市场流动性、HHI和Li(2010)的竞争指标。分析了竞争增强模型的样本内和样本外预测能力。研究结果表明,竞争与违约有显著的正相关,表明竞争的风险增加效应优于纪律效应。相互作用分析表明,群体隶属关系调节了竞争对违约的影响。在相似的竞争水平下,集团附属的私人公司比非集团附属的公司更不可能违约,这表明了集团附属所带来的纪律效应。此外,我们发现在Altman模型中加入产品市场流动性显著提高了其预测能力。本研究以私营企业为例,对竞争的财务结果进行了文献研究。这表明群体隶属关系调节了竞争与违约之间的关系。这项研究也有助于金融违约研究的证据,竞争增强违约预测。这项研究表明,竞争指标可用于欧洲联盟最近正在推广的私营公司财务困境预警系统。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
11.20
自引率
9.20%
发文量
240
期刊介绍: Research in International Business and Finance (RIBAF) seeks to consolidate its position as a premier scholarly vehicle of academic finance. The Journal publishes high quality, insightful, well-written papers that explore current and new issues in international finance. Papers that foster dialogue, innovation, and intellectual risk-taking in financial studies; as well as shed light on the interaction between finance and broader societal concerns are particularly appreciated. The Journal welcomes submissions that seek to expand the boundaries of academic finance and otherwise challenge the discipline. Papers studying finance using a variety of methodologies; as well as interdisciplinary studies will be considered for publication. Papers that examine topical issues using extensive international data sets are welcome. Single-country studies can also be considered for publication provided that they develop novel methodological and theoretical approaches or fall within the Journal''s priority themes. It is especially important that single-country studies communicate to the reader why the particular chosen country is especially relevant to the issue being investigated. [...] The scope of topics that are most interesting to RIBAF readers include the following: -Financial markets and institutions -Financial practices and sustainability -The impact of national culture on finance -The impact of formal and informal institutions on finance -Privatizations, public financing, and nonprofit issues in finance -Interdisciplinary financial studies -Finance and international development -International financial crises and regulation -Financialization studies -International financial integration and architecture -Behavioral aspects in finance -Consumer finance -Methodologies and conceptualization issues related to finance
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