The Hierarchy of Cycling Needs: Modeling the self-assessed propensity to bicycle

Abstract

As car dependent cities desire a transition to more sustainable and healthful transportation systems, they need guidance on how to support the adoption of cycling. In this research we measure and model the key factors that lead to a progressive behavioral change towards cycling, using Lisbon as the case study. Based on stated responses from a survey (n = 1079), sub-groups of potential cyclists were identified based on sociodemographic information, cycling experience, and their self-assessed willingness to adopt bicycling. Three binary logit models were calibrated to model the probability to shift between behavior-change stages: from “Pessimist” to “Optimist”, then to “Enthusiast”, and, finally, to “Cyclist”. Results suggest that cycling infrastructure and equipment have a greater effect during the earlier stages of change, while facilities and practical needs have more impact during the middle stages. Finally, the individual’s social network and personal concerns and attitudes are crucial for the final push towards changing behavior and taking-up cycling. Based upon these results, a Pyramid of Cycling Needs is proposed, summarizing the hierarchy of needs to cycling. This framework informs which interventions and policies can have the greatest impact at each different stage of the transition to bicycling, and thus, raise cycling levels if those needs are made redundant. This research is a contribution towards understanding of how a city may transition to a higher cycling maturity level, by adopting an approach of targeted policies to different population groups who are willing to bicycle but have different needs.