Pre-disaster planning and preparedness for urban seismic Resilience: Evaluating critical influential factors for temporary shelter site selection

IF 6.5 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Habitat International Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI:10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103478

Erfan Anjomshoa, Gholamreza Heravi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Increasing urbanization and the rising frequency of seismic events have necessitated the need for effective disaster preparedness and resilience planning; yet, existing shelter site selection methods often overlook critical influential factors (CIFs), underscoring the need for an integrative framework tailored to urban seismic resilience. This study develops a comprehensive framework for ranking and determining CIFs for the site selection of temporary shelters in the pre-disaster phase, focusing on earthquake scenarios. The framework aims to optimize resource allocation, minimize casualties, and enhance disaster resilience by addressing the complexities of decision-making in the planning, preparedness, and provisioning phases. The study integrates qualitative and quantitative methods by employing an applied, descriptive, and survey-based approach. Initially, a one-sample t-test with a 95 % confidence level was conducted to examine data significance, followed by a fuzzy VIKOR method to assess and rank influential factors (IFs) identified through an extensive literature review and expert opinions. Data were gathered using a structured questionnaire completed by 28 crisis management experts in Kerman, Iran, and the robustness of rankings against different criterion weights was assessed using a sensitivity analysis. The results highlight “distance to hospitals,” “distance to police stations,” “distance to fire stations,” and “population density” as more important CIFs. This research bridges a gap in disaster management by developing a holistic and context-specific framework for determining CIFs tailored to pre-disaster scenarios. It advances the application of multi-attribute decision-making in shelter planning, providing recommendations for policymakers to enhance earthquake disaster preparedness.

查看原文本刊更多论文

城市地震恢复力的灾前规划和准备：评估临时避难所选址的关键影响因素

城市化进程的加快和地震事件频率的上升使得有效的备灾和抗灾规划成为必要；然而，现有的庇护所选址方法往往忽略了关键的影响因素（ci），强调了针对城市抗震能力量身定制的综合框架的必要性。本研究开发了一个综合框架，用于在灾前阶段对临时避难所的选址进行排名和确定，重点是地震场景。该框架旨在通过解决规划、准备和供应阶段决策的复杂性，优化资源分配，最大限度地减少人员伤亡，并增强灾害恢复能力。本研究采用应用、描述和基于调查的方法，将定性和定量方法结合起来。首先，采用95%置信度的单样本t检验来检验数据的显著性，然后采用模糊VIKOR方法对通过广泛的文献回顾和专家意见确定的影响因素（if）进行评估和排序。数据由伊朗Kerman的28名危机管理专家完成的结构化问卷收集，并使用敏感性分析对不同标准权重的排名进行稳健性评估。结果显示，“到医院的距离”、“到警察局的距离”、“到消防站的距离”和“人口密度”是更重要的影响因素。本研究通过开发一个整体的、具体环境的框架来确定适合灾前情景的CIFs，弥合了灾害管理方面的差距。推进了多属性决策在避难场所规划中的应用，为决策者加强地震防灾提供建议。

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来源期刊

Habitat International Multiple-

CiteScore

10.50

自引率

10.30%

发文量

151

审稿时长

38 days

期刊介绍： Habitat International is dedicated to the study of urban and rural human settlements: their planning, design, production and management. Its main focus is on urbanisation in its broadest sense in the developing world. However, increasingly the interrelationships and linkages between cities and towns in the developing and developed worlds are becoming apparent and solutions to the problems that result are urgently required. The economic, social, technological and political systems of the world are intertwined and changes in one region almost always affect other regions.