Predictors of gastroesophageal reflux disease revisited: a novel gastroesophageal reflux disease clinical prediction score.

IF 2.6 3区 医学
Lea Fayad, Ethan Gough, Antonio Almario, Mohamad Dbouk, Elizabeth Abou Diwan, Marcia Irene Canto
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Symptom assessment and proton pump inhibitor (PPI) trial are limited in predicting pathologic gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) on pH testing and endoscopy, which has led to PPI overuse. We aimed to develop a novel scoring system using demographic factors, clinical factors, and symptoms to predict pathologic GERD. Adult patients with GERD were prospectively enrolled into a Heartburn Center Registry from April 2019 to September 2021. Demographics, patient responses to validated questionnaires, results of endoscopy and pH testing were collected. We selected variables associated with pathologic GERD (P < 0.10) in bivariable analyses for inclusion in multivariable models to predict pathologic GERD. A total of 365 patients were included. About 199/365 (33%) of these patients had pathologic GERD based on abnormal pH testing (49.7%) and/or abnormal esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) (61.3%). Our clinical prediction model included 10 variables and had a sensitivity of 90%, specificity of 56%, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.77, and was then validated using a separate cohort. The model was then refitted using the expanded criteria for definition of GERD from the new Lyon Consensus 2.0. Four new variables led to improved model performance including history of chronic lung disease, history of asthma, history of gastroparesis and heartburn after meals. This expanded model including 14 variables had a sensitivity of 84.2%, specificity of 71.7%, and AUROC of 0.80, which was then validated in a separate cohort. Our novel 10-variable GERD prediction model performs well for estimating risk for pathologic GERD without invasive testing and is potentially a practical clinical screening tool for pathologic GERD.

重新审视胃食管反流疾病的预测因素:一种新的胃食管反流疾病临床预测评分。
症状评估和质子泵抑制剂(PPI)试验在pH试验和内镜检查中预测病理性胃食管反流病(GERD)方面存在局限性,这导致了PPI的过度使用。我们的目标是开发一种新的评分系统,利用人口统计学因素、临床因素和症状来预测病理性胃食管反流。2019年4月至2021年9月,胃灼热中心登记了成年胃食管反流患者。收集人口统计数据、患者对有效问卷的回答、内窥镜检查结果和pH测试结果。我们选择了与病理性GERD相关的变量(P
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来源期刊
Diseases of the Esophagus
Diseases of the Esophagus Medicine-Gastroenterology
自引率
7.70%
发文量
568
期刊介绍: Diseases of the Esophagus covers all aspects of the esophagus - etiology, investigation and diagnosis, and both medical and surgical treatment.
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