Liver tumors in rodents: extrapolation to man.

Abstract

Man is a poor model for the prediction of agents that are hepatocarcinogenic for laboratory rodents. Relatively few agents are known to cause any form of primary liver cancer in man. The most important is hepatitis B virus, for which there is possibly a model in the woodchuck but not one in rats or mice. The only other agents known to cause primary liver cancer in man are certain steroid hormones, vinyl chloride, and thorium dioxide. There are animal models for the first two of these and a reasonable expectation that thorium dioxide would produce liver tumors in animals if the appropriate experiments were done. Aflatoxin, a potent hepatocarcinogen in rats and other species but not mice, is strongly suspected of being an important human hepatocarcinogen in certain geographical areas of the world, but the evidence is circumstantial. There is no more than a weak association between the nutritional type of cirrhosis secondary to excessive intake of alcohol and increased primary liver cancer in man, and no evidence at all that ethanol per se causes liver tumors in mice, rats, hamsters, or mastomys. By contrast, a very large number of chemicals to which people in the West have been exposed for many decades have been found to be hepatocarcinogens in laboratory rodents. In most cases the levels of exposure required to produce liver tumors in rodents far exceed those to which man is normally exposed. The problem is to guess whether low-level exposure to such rodent hepatocarcinogens poses any real liver cancer threat to man?The mortality from primary liver cancer is very low in countries such as England and Wales where there is widespread exposure to low doses of both natural and synthetic agents which, in high dosage, cause liver tumors in rodents. This suggests that, if there is any risk, it can only be very small. Death rate data collected in England and Wales by the Registrar General are consistent with there having been a small increase in the incidence of primary liver cancer in England and Wales during the past 20 years, but the apparent increase might well be a consequence of revisions in the International Classification of Diseases system and not real. During the first half of the present century the age-standardized incidence of primary liver cancer in England and Wales was falling.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)