Burst-Sensitive Traffic Forecast via Multi-Property Personalized Fusion in Federated Learning

Abstract

For distributed network traffic prediction with data localization and privacy protection, Federated Learning (FL) enables collaborative training without raw data exchange across Base Stations (BSs). Nevertheless, traffic across BSs exhibit inherently heterogeneous trend burst and smooth fluctuation properties, but existing FL methods model single-scale series from only one view, which cannot simultaneously capture diverse trend and fluctuation properties, especially distinct burst distributions. In this paper, we propose Personalized Federated Forecasting with Multi-property Self-fusion (P2FMS), which can represent multi-scale traffic properties from different views. With precise multi-property representations, a fusion-level prediction decision is learned for each client in a personalized manner to promptly sense traffic bursts and improve forecasting performance in non-IID settings. Specifically, P2FMS decomposes the traffic series into distinct time scales, based on which, we effectively extract closeness, period, and trend properties from different views. The closeness and period are embedded through global-view representations with spatial correlations, while non-stationary trends are individually fitted from the client-side view. Furthermore, a personalized combiner is designed to accurately quantify the proportion of general fluctuation raws (i.e., closeness and period) and specific trend property in predictions, which enables multi-property self-fusion for each client to accommodate heterogeneous traffic patterns and enhance prediction accuracy. Besides, an alternant training mechanism is introduced to optimize property representation and fusion modules with the convergence guarantee. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that P2FMS outperforms status quo methods in both prediction performance and convergence time.