An analytics-based framework for military technology adoption and combat strategy

Abstract

Introducing new technology into a military force during an ongoing conflict presents significant challenges, extending beyond logistics to include the uncertainty of how effectively soldiers can adapt to and deploy the new capabilities. This study examines how the mastery of new technology shapes the dynamics of warfare and informs effective decision-making strategies. Our methodology is grounded in a model-based approach. We begin with Lanchester’s square law model, which provides a framework for analyzing modern combat scenarios involving long-range weapons. To extend this framework, we incorporate the Bass diffusion model, enabling the simultaneous examination of the progression of the conflict and the learning curve associated with the new technology. Subsequently, we utilize insights from studying the adoption of a single technology to analyze the introduction of multiple new technologies provided by different suppliers. In this context, considerations of technological effectiveness and supplier reliability become critical in making balanced procurement decisions. To support this process, we propose a Market Share Attraction model to guide decision-making effectively.