Google Trends Analysis of Interest in Smoking Cessation, Treatment Options, and Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems Following Tax Increase and Introduction of Pictorial Health Warnings in Germany.
IF 2.1 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Tobias Jagomast, Imke Tangemann-Münstedt, Mareike Lüthgen, Henrike A Faesser, Thorben Lueg, Daniel Drömann, Klaas F Franzen
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Smoking places a significant burden on healthcare systems, necessitating effective tobacco control measures. Pictorial health warnings (PHW) and tax increases have demonstrated great efficacy, yet their impact on cessation treatments and unintended shifts toward electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) remains elusive. This study analyzes changes in public interest following these measures using online search volume for search terms regarding three categories: cessation, treatment, and ENDS.
Methods: An interrupted time series analysis was conducted. First, an online survey in Germany determined relevant tobacco control measures and search terms related to the three categories. Participants (n = 487) were ≥18 years old, with German as their first language. Second, the relative search volume (RSV) of Google for Germany regarding the identified search terms was analyzed around the enactment of the determined measures. This data is an anonymized aggregate of all Google users. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to estimate the change in RSV.
Results: The survey identified tax increases and PHW as the most relevant tobacco control measures among selectable options. The tax increase in 2022 elicited a greater shift in RSV than the implementation of PHW in 2016. Substantial peaks in RSV only occurred following the tax increase, with no significant anticipatory effects. After the tax increase, interest in cessation-related terms seemed to rise (week 1: smoke free 6.53% [95% CI -6.78%-19.84%], quit smoking 12.17% [95% CI -0.15%-24.49%]), alongside a significant rise in searches for ENDS (week 2-3: e-cigarette 9.15% [95% CI 1.12%-17.19%], e-waterpipe 18.7% [95% CI 6.43%-30.96%]).
Conclusion: A tobacco tax increase may lead to increased online interest in ENDS. Policymakers should concurrently educate the public about the harms associated with ENDS and promote evidence-based cessation aids. This may discourage both the initiation of ENDS and their use for smoking cessation while redirecting public interest toward medically recommended alternatives.
背景：吸烟给卫生保健系统造成重大负担，需要采取有效的烟草控制措施。图片健康警告（PHW）和增税已经证明了巨大的功效，但它们对戒烟治疗和向电子尼古丁传递系统（ENDS）的意外转变的影响仍然难以预测。本研究利用在线搜索量对三类搜索词进行分析，分析了这些措施后公众利益的变化：戒烟、治疗和终止。方法：采用中断时间序列分析。首先，德国的一项在线调查确定了相关的控烟措施和与这三类相关的搜索词。参与者（n = 487）年龄≥18岁，母语为德语。其次，围绕确定的措施的制定，分析了德国谷歌对确定的搜索词的相对搜索量（RSV）。该数据是所有谷歌用户的匿名聚合。采用自回归综合移动平均模型估计RSV的变化。结果：调查确定增税和PHW是可选方案中最相关的烟草控制措施。与2016年实施PHW相比，2022年的增税引发了RSV的更大变化。RSV的大量高峰只发生在增税之后，没有显著的预期效应。在增税之后，人们对戒烟相关词汇的兴趣似乎有所上升（第一周：无烟6.53% [95% CI -6.78%-19.84%]，戒烟12.17% [95% CI -0.15%-24.49%]），与此同时，ENDS的搜索量也显著上升（第2-3周：电子烟9.15% [95% CI 1.12%-17.19%]，电子水管18.7% [95% CI 6.43%-30.96%]）。结论：烟草税的增加可能导致网上对ENDS的兴趣增加。政策制定者应同时教育公众了解与ENDS相关的危害，并推广基于证据的戒烟辅助。这可能会阻碍ENDS的启动及其用于戒烟，同时将公众的兴趣转向医学推荐的替代品。
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