{"title":"The act of voting: Another challenge for behavioural economics","authors":"Panagiotis Karadimas","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12698","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Behavioural economists propose the ‘aspiration-based adaptive rule’ (ABAR) model in which a trial-and-error heuristic is developed to explain voter turnout. However, several problems appear. First, the model links propensity to vote with expected pay-offs that are in turn based on the extent to which the pay-offs of previous actions of voting exceeded the agents' aspirations. But this leads to an infinite regress to previous actions of voting, which has the consequence of leaving unexplained why people bother to vote in the first place. Second, the ABAR model is tautological for even if the model derives testable statistical distributions, the theoretical premises from which these predictions are derived are inevitably confirmed. As a result, the same premises can be used to explain both voting and abstention, and capture theoretically all possibilities.</p>","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"45 2","pages":"277-288"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecaf.12698","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Behavioural economists propose the ‘aspiration-based adaptive rule’ (ABAR) model in which a trial-and-error heuristic is developed to explain voter turnout. However, several problems appear. First, the model links propensity to vote with expected pay-offs that are in turn based on the extent to which the pay-offs of previous actions of voting exceeded the agents' aspirations. But this leads to an infinite regress to previous actions of voting, which has the consequence of leaving unexplained why people bother to vote in the first place. Second, the ABAR model is tautological for even if the model derives testable statistical distributions, the theoretical premises from which these predictions are derived are inevitably confirmed. As a result, the same premises can be used to explain both voting and abstention, and capture theoretically all possibilities.
期刊介绍：
Economic Affairs is a journal for those interested in the application of economic principles to practical affairs. It aims to stimulate debate on economic and social problems by asking its authors, while analysing complex issues, to make their analysis and conclusions accessible to a wide audience. Each issue has a theme on which the main articles focus, providing a succinct and up-to-date review of a particular field of applied economics. Themes in 2008 included: New Perspectives on the Economics and Politics of Ageing, Housing for the Poor: the Role of Government, The Economic Analysis of Institutions, and Healthcare: State Failure. Academics are also invited to submit additional articles on subjects related to the coverage of the journal. There is section of double blind refereed articles and a section for shorter pieces that are reviewed by our Editorial Board (Economic Viewpoints). Please contact the editor for full submission details for both sections.
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