The factors behind the depreciation of the yen: Why Japan needs a policy shift

IF 1.8 Q3 ECONOMICS

ECONOMIC AFFAIRS Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI:10.1111/ecaf.12701

Hideki Nishigaki

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This article analyses the factors underlying the recent depreciation of the yen. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, I find that approximately half of the decline in the yen's exchange rate against the dollar from the end of 2020 to mid-2024 can be attributed to portfolio balance effects. Income disparity and interest rate differentials between the US and Japan have also contributed to the yen's weakening. This suggests the need for a shift in Japan's economic policy, which should focus on expanding domestic demand and easing pressure on the yen's depreciation.

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日元贬值背后的因素：为什么日本需要政策转变

本文分析了最近日元贬值的潜在因素。使用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型，我发现从2020年底到2024年年中，日元兑美元汇率的下跌约有一半可归因于投资组合平衡效应。美国和日本之间的收入差距和利率差异也导致日元走软。这表明日本有必要调整经济政策，将重点放在扩大内需和缓解日元贬值压力上。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

ECONOMIC AFFAIRS ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Economic Affairs is a journal for those interested in the application of economic principles to practical affairs. It aims to stimulate debate on economic and social problems by asking its authors, while analysing complex issues, to make their analysis and conclusions accessible to a wide audience. Each issue has a theme on which the main articles focus, providing a succinct and up-to-date review of a particular field of applied economics. Themes in 2008 included: New Perspectives on the Economics and Politics of Ageing, Housing for the Poor: the Role of Government, The Economic Analysis of Institutions, and Healthcare: State Failure. Academics are also invited to submit additional articles on subjects related to the coverage of the journal. There is section of double blind refereed articles and a section for shorter pieces that are reviewed by our Editorial Board (Economic Viewpoints). Please contact the editor for full submission details for both sections.