Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The Global Differential Burden and Secular Trends From 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction up to 2030.

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

International Journal of Public Health Pub Date : 2025-05-21 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.3389/ijph.2025.1607013

Xuesong Yang, Yanbo Liu, Shiling Chen, Danyang Chen, Xuan Wu, Yanqiong Wu, Cheng Liu, Anne Manyande, Hongbing Xiang, Zhouping Tang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives: This study aims to analyze the global burden and temporal trends of intracerebral hemorrhage from 1990 to 2019 and to project the burden up to 2030, considering variations across regions, sexes, and age groups.

Methods: Data were sourced from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2019 study. We assessed ASIR (age-standardized incidence rates), ASMR (age-standardized mortality rates) , and ASDR (age-standardized disability adjusted life year rate) using the BAPC (Bayesian age-period-cohort) model. Spearman's Rho correlation was used to examine the relationship between disease burden and the SDI (Socio-Demographic Index).

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the global ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of intracerebral hemorrhage decreased by 1.52%, 1.64%, and 1.64%, respectively, while absolute case numbers increased. Males consistently exhibited higher ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR than females. The projections suggest that by 2030, the incidence and absolute cases of intracerebral hemorrhage will continue to rise, while mortality rates will decline.

Conclusion: Despite reductions in age-standardized rates, the global burden of intracerebral hemorrhage continues to increase due to population growth and aging. Effective prevention and treatment strategies, especially in low-SDI regions, are urgently needed.

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脑出血：1990 - 2019年全球差异负担和长期趋势及其到2030年的预测。

目的：本研究旨在分析1990年至2019年脑出血的全球负担和时间趋势，并在考虑地区、性别和年龄组差异的情况下预测到2030年的负担。方法：数据来自GBD（全球疾病负担）2019研究。我们使用BAPC（贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列）模型评估ASIR（年龄标准化发病率）、ASMR（年龄标准化死亡率）和ASDR（年龄标准化残疾调整生命年率）。Spearman’s Rho相关用于检验疾病负担与SDI（社会人口指数）之间的关系。结果：1990 - 2019年，全球脑出血ASIR、ASMR和ASDR分别下降1.52%、1.64%和1.64%，而绝对病例数增加。男性的ASIR、ASMR和ASDR均高于女性。预测表明，到2030年，脑出血的发病率和绝对病例数将继续上升，而死亡率将下降。结论：尽管年龄标准化率有所下降，但由于人口增长和老龄化，全球脑出血负担继续增加。迫切需要有效的预防和治疗策略，特别是在低sdi地区。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

2.20%

发文量

269

审稿时长

12 months

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Public Health publishes scientific articles relevant to global public health, from different countries and cultures, and assembles them into issues that raise awareness and understanding of public health problems and solutions. The Journal welcomes submissions of original research, critical and relevant reviews, methodological papers and manuscripts that emphasize theoretical content. IJPH sometimes publishes commentaries and opinions. Special issues highlight key areas of current research. The Editorial Board''s mission is to provide a thoughtful forum for contemporary issues and challenges in global public health research and practice.