Epidemiological Trends and Future Projections of Osteoarthritis in Mexico: Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Abstract

Objective: This study seeks to assess the temporal patterns of osteoarthritis (OA) in Mexico from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study and to project future trends over the next 19 years.

Methods: Age-standardized rate data for the prevalence (age-standardized prevalence rate [ASPR]), incidence (age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR]), disability-adjusted life year, and years lived with disability of OA in Mexico were extracted. Temporal trends were assessed using the average annual percentage change as a statistical measure. The metrics were forecast to 2040 with a mixed-effects model.

Results: The ASPR "and the ASIR of OA increased from 6890 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 6126-7624) and 549 (95% UI, 485-609) in 1990 to 8647 (95% UI, 6919-8647) in 2021 per 100,000 and 617 (95% UI, 545-681), respectively. Similarly, age-standardized disability-adjusted life years increased from 240 (95% UI, 115-485) to 277 (95% UI, 133-559) per 100,000 from 1990 to 2021. Knee OA was the predominant form of OA, followed by hand OA. Joinpoint regression analysis showed significant increases in ASPR and ASIR from 1990 to 2021 (average annual percentage change, 0.4% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.3-0.5; p < 0.001] and 0.4% [95% CI, 0.3-0.4; p < 0.001], respectively). The forecasted ASPR of OA will be 7843.8 (95% CI, 7811.5-7876.0) per 100,000 in 2022 and 8181.3 (95% CI, 6473.6-9782.9) in 2040.

Conclusion: The burden of OA in Mexico increased markedly from 1990 to 2021, with knee OA emerging as the primary contributor amid significant interstate disparities. Demographic shifts and rising life expectancy signal a continued increase in OA burden. These findings call for targeted public health policies and enhanced health care capacity to address emerging challenges across Mexico.