The wonders of colored noise in a climate model.

Abstract

The problem of identifying possible dynamic mechanisms causing a global climate change is considered. This problem is investigated on the basis of a conceptual mathematical model describing the dynamic interaction of a sea ice latitude and bulk ocean temperature in the presence of parametric random fluctuations given by colored noise. It is shown how, under the influence of random perturbations, the equilibrium modes of the initial deterministic model are transformed into large-amplitude oscillatory modes. The dependence of these stochastic effects on the temporal correlation characteristics of the colored noises is investigated in detail. In this study, along with direct numerical simulations of random solutions, a new mathematical technique of stochastic sensitivity analysis of systems with colored noise and the confidence ellipses method is effectively used. The zone of the most active colored noise causing resonance phenomena has been identified.