Economic Conditions and Predictability of US Stock Returns Volatility: Local Factor Versus National Factor in a GARCH-MIDAS Model

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to utilize the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity–mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) framework to predict the daily volatility of state-level stock returns in the United States (US), based on the weekly metrics from the corresponding broad economic conditions indexes (ECIs). In light of the importance of a common factor in explaining a large proportion of the total variability in the state-level economic conditions, we first apply a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (DFM-SV) to filter out the national factor from the local components of weekly state-level ECIs. We find that both the local and national factors of the ECI generally tend to affect state-level volatility negatively. Furthermore, the GARCH-MIDAS model, supplemented by these predictors, surpasses the benchmark GARCH-MIDAS model with realized volatility (GARCH-MIDAS-RV) in a majority of states. Interestingly, the local factor often assumes a more influential role overall, compared with the national factor. Moreover, when the stochastic volatilities associated with the local and national factors are integrated into the GARCH-MIDAS model, they outperform the GARCH-MIDAS-RV in over 80% of the states. Our findings have important implications for investors and policymakers.